Debating global poverty reduction: responding to Johan Norberg

30-Apr-04

A couple of weeks ago, I posted on the subject of new World Bank figures on global poverty since 1981, commenting that while they showed an enormous reduction in the numbers living in poverty in China, the numbers of the poor elsewhere in the world actually rose.

The post was written in part in response to a blogpost by the Swedish neoliberal Johan Norberg, which I felt incorrectly claimed China’s poverty reduction as the result of the liberal, free-trade model of ‘globalisation’ Norberg supports. I also wrote to him at the time raising the same concerns, and today he kindly responded through his blog (see post on 30th April):

WHERE WAS POVERTY REDUCED?: As I have written here before, the latest calculations from the World Bank show that almost 400 million people left absolute poverty 1981-2001. This means that absolute poverty in developing countries was almost halved from 40 to 21 percent, and the global figure reduced from 33 to 18 percent. There has been amazing progress. But a critic says that poverty has actually grown in most places. The poverty reduction has been entirely led by China, and “to say that China reduced poverty while ´embracing globalisation´ is simply incorrect” since their external tariffs were high during the beginning of the transition.


It is true that poverty has increased in Africa and Central Asia, precisely the regions that have been marginalised in the global economy, and ravaged by war and conflict. It’s also true that China has made the biggest progress – but only after it implemented liberal economic reforms from 1978 onwards, which in a short time created the world’s biggest free trade area (more than one billion Chinese), and since then it has made more success than any other country in increasing trade and attracting foreign investments. If China isn’t a poster-child for globalisation, I don’t know what would be. But it isn’t the only country where the number of poor has been reduced. It has also happened in the rest of East Asia, and in India and the rest of South Asia. To say that if we exclude India and China, poverty is increasing in the world is not very informative, since these are the most important countries. India alone has a bigger population than Africa and Latin America combined.

I find the response a little disappointing. To take the first point, poverty increased not just in Africa and Central Asia but also Eastern Europe (which is lumped together with Central Asia in the World Bank figures). Eastern Europe has not been ‘ravaged by war and conflict’ - if it was ravaged by anything, it was the misguided big-bang liberalisation of their economies. And it is misleading to omit Latin America from the list of failing regions - the numbers in absolute poverty have increased by around 40% since 1981, with the percentage of the total population in poverty falling by only 2% (9.7% to 9.5%, if you see what I mean). So the failures of ‘globalisation’ can not be put down to conflict and marginalisation - Latin America has had neither and it grew much faster in the decades before the peak of ‘globalisation’.

Secondly, there’s China. I’m surprised that Norberg claims that “in a short time [Chine] created the world’s biggest free trade area”, since it is simply false. An earlier post of mine shows that in the period to 1996 which saw China’s poverty level drop by 400 million, it had average tariffs of at least 25% - by no stretch of the imagination a ‘free trade zone’ and in fact higher than most developing countries. Comparing the two graphs actually suggests that China’s poverty reduction effectively stopped after 1996 when its tariffs fell to more typical levels!

To claim China as a poster-child for globalisation is perpetuate a worrying trend others have identified in pro-globalisation commentators - countries are identified as globalisers more on the basis of their economic performance than on any clearly differentiated set of policies they may have adopted. To re-phrase, China (a country slowly emerging from communism, which gradually lowered very high trade barriers and only recently recognised private property rights) is claimed as long-term globaliser despite its protectionist policies, while countries in Latin America or Africa which have obediently implemented the neoliberal programme are ignored when they stubbornly remain poor. Whatever it is, this isn’t scientific.

The lessons of distant and recent history are that trade liberalisation does not cause development - if anything, development leads to greater trade liberalisation. In some cases liberalisation contributes, but development, underdevelopment and poverty are very complex matters - by pointing out that the same policy choices have very different outcomes in different contexts (and that the same outcomes can be caused by different policy choices), I’m trying to show the need for a deeper understanding of the historical, social, geographical and structural roots of these phenomena, and the need for appropriately nuanced and comprehensive policies. The Washington Consensus was, I think, a shallow and self-serving policy menu opportunistically foisted upon poor countries by the rich. It is not a genuine programme for development.

[EDIT: I’m still puzzling over Johan’s description of China as the “world’s biggest free trade area”. Was he maybe referring to ‘internal’ trade? Maybe people in China used to have to pay customs when they bought goods from another region, and now they don’t??]

The Long Run

28-Apr-04

50-plus former British diplomats tell Tony Blair that “there is no case for supporting policies which are doomed to failure”.

Ah, Tony Blair might say, but you’re just not taking the long view: eventually, my policy of supporting the USA no matter what they do will bear fruit in a safer and more just world.

Ah, the diplomats would probably respond, there’s a still longer view you’re ignoring: you’ll have pissed off so many people with your idiotic policies that by the time your long run comes around it’ll be too late to even persuade a significant minority onto your side. Effects are cumulative, and if you start off on the losing side it will take something special to get the majority behind you. You won’t have something special, so you will lose.

Q: Did the World Bank force its policies onto poor countries? A: Yes.

27-Apr-04

The World Bank recently wheeled out one of David Dollar, an economist fond of the bland and sweeping statement, to field some mostly dull questions about World Bank policy and ‘globalisation’ in general. One of the questions was:

One criticism leveled at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) is that they forced countries to adopt particular policies when they integrated into the world economy. Was this the case?

Surprisingly enough, Dollar gives a relatively straight answer: yes, it was the case. To quote:

In the early 1980s, there were many countries in which the World Bank and the IMF were trying to impose a policy package. So it is a fair criticism of the World Bank that this institution was trying to push a similar set of policies in many countries.

That’s one to file away for all those times when somebody claims that there was no such thing as forced liberalisation. Dollar then tries to offer some justification:

They might have been the right policies, but I think we’ve learned that this was not an effective way to promote the changes needed to seize the opportunities of trade and integration. People just react instinctively against having something imposed from the outside.

Ah. Y’see, there was nothing wrong with the policies themselves. The programme was sound, dammit! Unfortunately for Dollar, this doesn’t tally with the opinion of his new boss, World Bank chief economist Francois Bourguignon (see previous post), who looked back on the World Bank’s neoliberal policy regime that reached its peak in the 1980s and concluded that “there are some cases where this proved to be catastrophic”.

World Bank economist heralds the end of the neoliberal era, maybe

27-Apr-04

It says a lot for the state of the art when the emergence of an international economist who isn’t a slavering neoliberal ideologue is a cause for celebration. I’m talking here about the World Bank’s new chief economist, Francois Bourguignon. His appointment just might signify a significant shift in attitudes at the Bank, because he’s been repeatedly doing some very un-Bank-like things such as condemning inequality and questioning the neoliberal consensus. I found this quote (reproduced in the World Bank’s DevNews service)from an interview with the French newspaper Libération:

It is not possible to succeed in the fight against poverty without putting the stress on equity, social integration and income allocation. After the planned development era came the neoliberal development era. Thanks to some adjustments, we thought that growth and efficiency could be carried on regardless of income allocation—for instance, through privatization. Yet, there are some cases where this proved to be catastrophic. A new phase is now starting: we acknowledge that a part of state intervention is necessary. We went from a doctrinal position to a pragmatic one. There is not a single path to development. Different scenarios always have to be thought of.

The first question that pops into my head upon reading such sensible stuff from a World Bank economist is: Is he crazy? This kind of think could lose a guy his job.

Second thing is whether this change in rhetoric is reflected in any actual policy changes at the Bank: for example, have they changed the economic conditions they and the IMF impose on poor countries in exchange for new loans? I don’t know - we’ll have to wait and see, or maybe someone with a lot more expertise could tell me?

Rich countries and the history of investment policy: do as we say, not as we did

21-Apr-04

Just found this report by Ha Joon Chang and Duncan Green on how the laws of the World Trade Organisation and proposed international agreements on investment explicitly rule out stratetic policies on foreign investment used by now-developed countries in the past.

Some quotes from the summary:

when they were net recipients of foreign investment, all of today�s developed countries imposed regulations on foreign investment in order to ensure that such investment contributed to their long-term national development.

Almost all of the now-developed countries restricted the entry of foreign investment … Bans on entry created space for local producers to establish themselves, while conditional entry made it possible to extract more benefits from permitted for-eign investment … When entry was permitted, governments placed numerous per-formance requirements on investors in order to maximize the benefits to their economies. Even when there were no formal performance requirements, most developed countries used them informally.

… most [requirements] were put in place in order to ensure that local businesses picked up advanced technologies and managerial skills from their interaction with foreign investors, either through direct transfer or through indirect spillovers.Local content requirements and explicit requirements for technology transfer were the most obvious means to ensure this … In the late 19th century, the USA even banned the employment of foreign workers thus forcing foreign firms to train local workers. Bans on majority foreign ownership or the encour-agement of joint ventures were also ways to encourage the transfer of key technologies and managerial skills.

… there was no �one-size-fits-all� model of foreign investment regulation … Only when domestic industry reached a cer-tain level of sophistication, complexity, and competitiveness did the benefits of non-discrimination and liberalization come to outweigh the costs. As a result, countries generally moved towards a greater
degree of non-discrimination and liberalization as they developed …

Many of the policy measures on foreign investment adopted in the past by today�s developed countries are already constrained by WTO agreements such as the
TRIMs agreement or the GATS.

Why would we in the rich countries prevent poor countries using the policies that served us so well in the past? No reason except that it doesn’t serve us now for others to use them, that’s why.

Shelter: a million British children live in bad housing

21-Apr-04

The housing charity Shelter say that over a million British children live in housing that is run-down, overcrowded or dangerous. They’re launching a campaign to build public support for action on the issue, and the initial report is here.

A few interesting points on the effects of bad housing:
-One in 12 children in Britain are more likely to develop diseases such as bronchitis, TB or asthma because of bad housing;
-Evidence suggests that children in poor housing are directly and adversely affected in later life, even if their housing conditions subsequently improve;
-The British Medical Association says that multiple housing deprivation appears to pose a health risk of the same magnitude as smoking;
-People who live on deprived estates are twice as likely to be victims of crime than those from other estates;
-Homeless children miss out on a quarter of their schooling;
-Housing is a major cause of adult poverty. If children do not have a decent home, they spend the rest of their lives running to catch up, lagging behind their peers;

As for why this has happened:
-”Rocketing house prices and lack of affordable housing have, in many areas, made it impossible for families to buy or rent a home”;
-”House prices are high partly because fewer homes are being built today than at any time since the Second World War”;
-”Over two million council houses have been sold off in the last 20 years and investment in social housing is around half the level of a decade ago”;
-”Excessive demand for housing in urban property hotspots and rural areas has priced ordinary families out of areas where jobs and services are readily available”;
-”Services to help families are at crisis point. Nearly every council in Britain is desperately short of social work staff”.

To help solve the problem, Shelter propose more investment in new and existing homes, better regulation of landlords and more support services to prevent homelessness.

This report is very welcome. It’s part of a growing recognition of the central importance of housing as a determinant of individual and social well-being. The effects of housing on behaviour and health and the knock-on effects on a person’s education and life-chances are potentially huge. Removing the poison of bad housing could greatly increase the well-being of the society as a whole as more people are able to reach their full potential and keep out of cycles of self-destruction.

The problem these days is the lack of political will to tackle housing issues. New Labour are especially terrified of interfering in a housing market which is making millionaires out of so many of its core Middle England voters while crushing those who are already politically marginalised. The worse the problem of bad housing gets, the greater the intervention required to fix things and the less willing the government is to take the necessary steps. However, I think we’re either at or past a ‘tipping point’ - housing conditions are now so bad for a sizeable minority of people that we’ll be dealing with the consequences for a long time to come.

Poverty reduction: the good news and the bad news

14-Apr-04

The World Bank has produced new research claiming that 400 million people fewer lived on less than $1 a day in 2001 than did so twenty years before. The full article, by Shaohua Chen and Martin Ravallion, is available in pdf format here. In the past, there has been considerable controversy over the World Bank’s poverty figures. Chen & Ravallion are confident that their new figures are more robust - some will probably disagree, but for now I’m going to take them at face value.

According to C & R, “the percentage of the population of the developing world living below $1 per day was almost halved, falling from 40% to 21% over 1981-2001. Expressed as a proportion of the population of the world, the decline is from 33% to 18% … The number of poor fell by 380 million, from 1.5 billion to 1.1 billion.”

Digging deeper reveals startlingly divergent regional trends, however. While the vast majority of the poverty reduction has taken place in two countries, China and India, poverty has in fact risen in both absolute and proportional terms in Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, while rising in absolute terms in Latin America. In fact, when you subtract the 400 million people raised out of poverty in China alone, poverty actually increased in the rest of the world (see graph: click for a larger version).

GlobalPovertySmall.gif

What explains the incredible speed of poverty reduction in China compared to the rest of the world? Whatever it is, it’s not trade policy, as China’s poverty halved in a period when it’s average tariffs remained over 40%. So to say that China reduced poverty while ‘embracing globalisation’ is simply incorrect even if we leave out the fact that poverty grew in regions that ‘embraced’ the Washington Consensus even more.

[EDIT: If you’ve been referred here by Johan Norberg’s response to this post, I’ve got a response to his response here]

The Scotsman talks rubbish about globalisation and poverty

14-Apr-04

I don’t usually post long, point-by-point rebuttals of other people’s work, but I’m going to make an exception for a particularly inane opinion piece in today’s Scotsman. The article is Rise and fall of [the] anti-capitalist movement, by Fraser Nelson.

TWO weeks on Sunday, a group of young people from all around Britain will take a gamble on the weather and hold an afternoon picnic on St James’s Park in London. They may well be mistaken for a church youth-group outing, but the real content is far more serious: this is the 2004 anti-capitalist protest.

After much hand-wringing, the Mayday Collective has cancelled their annual protest in the capital - its newsletter says the decision was taken “only after several disappointing and poorly-attended meetings”. Recent rallies, the newsletter complained, featured “neither slogans being mouthed nor speeches being listened to - there was just, well, people dancing.”

Nelson has completely misinterpreted the last quote, if he even read the original source. The leaflet is reproduced here, and the line about ‘people dancing’ is actually in praise of the ’space’ opened up by the the likes of Mayday movement in defiance of ’slogans being mouthed’.

So what was once a loose but dazzling coalition of would-be revolutionaries, window-breakers and street-partiers will this year be represented by a band of earnest picnickers collectively chewing cucumber sandwiches in the London sunshine.

This is all a far cry from the scenes at Seattle in November 1999, when the World Trade Organisation’s annual meeting drew thousands of protesters who were dispersed with tear gas. Scenes reminiscent of the 1968 Paris student protests were beamed around the world - and acted as a clarion call to protesters worldwide.

The 2000 Mayday protest in London saw thousands descend on Whitehall, to find that police stood back as they defaced monuments, including Sir Winston Churchill’s statue and the Cenotaph. Those who missed it travelled to the Summit of the Americas in Quebec City, the European Union summit in Gothenburg, and the G8 summit in Genoa in July 2001.

Then two hijacked planes destroyed the World Trade Centre in New York, and the world changed. Attendance at such demonstrations has plummeted since then: the game of political violence (which already claimed one life in Genoa) had lost its innocence.

Attendance at such demonstrations did not plummet after September 11th. The EU summit in Barcelona was accompanied by protests by a crowd of over 150,000. The size of protests aimed purely at economic and social issues has indeed tailed off, but only as protests about military issues have grown. And the vast majority of protestors at all the events Nelson describes were not interested in some ‘game of political violence’. They were, and remain, interested in the cause of global justice.

Anti-war protests have sapped much of the anti-capitalist momentum, but even these have receded after the capture of Saddam Hussein. As the brutality of his dictatorship became better-understood, the logic in protesting against its removal became less clear-cut.

Saddam’s brutality was already known. Most sensible anti-war people did not see the need to protest a conflict which was already mostly over, and had mixed feelings about the merits of a sudden Coalition withdrawal from Iraq.

Rather than reclaim this support, the anti-capitalist movement seems to have lost its vogue.

A number of factors are at work - and the most important is a battle of ideas which is now raging but did not exist during the “Battle of Seattle”. Then, the required text was the bestselling No Logo, by Naomi Klein, a Canadian journalist who argued that big companies and their brands were exploiting the world’s poor by introducing sweatshop labour.

She hit a zeitgeist. By 2000, shops had globalised: holidaymakers had been going abroad to see Gap, Zara and Starbucks line up on high streets the world over. Shoppers were regularly turning the labels of their new clothes to see the names of faraway countries, even on the wares of self-proclaimed patriots such as Marks & Spencer. They smelt a rat - and Klein gleefully pointed them to it.

There was nothing either ‘gleeful’ or particularly new about Klein’s reporting of sweatshop conditions in Third World garment factories. She just integrated the well-known phenomenon of sweatshops into a well-argued cultural critique. Notice that Nelson is not arguing that the conditions in the sweatshops was not as bad as Klein claimed - he is simply implying that she should not have said so. The fact is, reputable clothing firms in the rich world only (and reluctantly) improved the conditions in their overseas factories because of the efforts of Klein and many before her to expose them.

And opposing Klein’s interpretation was - no-one. It became received wisdom that globalisation meant exploitation and that multinational companies were profiting on child labour, aided and abetted by the World Bank etc.

A classic straw man argument. I haven’t seen any suggestions that the World Bank aided and abetted the exploitation of child labour. Fraser Nelson has not paid attention to the views of the people he’s deriding.

For years, Klein was hailed as the queen of the small people versus the big people. The turning point came in Paris last year, when a 21-year-old activist led a protest of 80,000 in praise of “liberty” - and by liberty, they meant capitalism. They had come to “take back the streets” from the strikers then blocking the Paris traffic.

Sabine Herold was a student who had set up a centre-right think tank and called her movement “libertarianism”.

Firstly, Klein isn’t all that big, but I hadn’t noticed her being “hailed as the queen of the small people”. Secondly, fair play to Sabine Herold. That said, the National Review says she addressed a crowd of only 18,000 and not 80,000 but even if it’s nowhere near the scale of ‘anti-globalisation’ protests it’s still quite impressive.

But the main force in the pro-globalisation battle comes from an even more unlikely quarter: Sweden. The country with the highest taxes in Europe has produced Johan Norberg, 30, a former anarchist who has scored an international success with his book, In Defence of Globalisation.

Hailed as a 21st century manifesto of individual liberty and international development, his book has been translated into English and is selling worldwide - praised as the most powerful work ever written about globalisation.

Unlike No Logo, it is entirely based on facts - drawing from the United Nations’ own data to show that the overseas low-wage factories have made more progress against world poverty in the last 50 years than in the last 500.

What a silly comment, but enlightening in its silliness. The first 50 years have indeed seen more progress against poverty around the world than the previous 500, but that would not exactly be hard, since the previous 500 were characterised by the despoilation of the rest of the globe by the Europeans. And the biggest reductions in poverty were seen before the real dawn of the ‘globalised’ economy in the late 70s and early 80s. The countries which have made the most progress against poverty since then, such as India and China, have done so while conspicuously flouting the principles of free trade.

The facts he produces speak for themselves: when UN inspectors visited a town where a Nike sweatshop had been closed after protests from the United States, it found that former employees were working as prostitutes.

Such people worked in sweatshops because the alternative was even worse.

Sure, some did. And some were tricked into leaving their rural homes and working for wages well below what they were promised. And it’s worth pointing out again the magical process by which so many sweatshops improved their pay and conditions only after being exposed by campaigners, journalists and human rights activists.

Where globalised companies had been allowed to stay, their logo was the perfect form of policing. Standards rose, wealth was created.

“Protesters have never rejected the pro-capitalist arguments. The problem is, they’ve never heard them before,” argues Norberg.

Hardly. If Norberg believes this then he’s the one who’s been living in ignorance. This site contains tons of links to people hearing and rejecting the very same ‘pro-capitalist’ arguments.

What had been a one-sided debate has now become an internet-based forum where the likes of Norberg and Ms Herold have the more persuasive arguments - that the world’s problems stem from politicians obstructing free trade both at home and abroad.

I doubt either Norberg or Herold put forward that simplistic an argument.

New recruits are seeing a debate about globalisation, not a monologue - and a different array of facts. Giving aid to African dictators has been a notorious failure; giving trade to Asian businesses has been a resounding success.

What does he even mean here? What was aid for African dictators supposed to be succesful for? They pocketed the aid and debts, as we knew they would. Then we insisted that their democratic successors pay us back. When aid has been given to democratic African governments it has cut early mortality and increased literacy. And during the mid-20th Century the US channelled billions of dollars in aid and easy-terms credit to South Korea and Taiwan, which makes the point doubly spurious.

Heavyweights like Joseph E Stiglitz, a Nobel prize-winner, have entered the debate. His bestseller Globalisation and Its Discontents argues that free trade can be a tremendous force for good - but the World Bank has no idea how to best use it.

And the next salvo in the debate will be fired from the World Bank, whose figures will show that globalisation has lifted 400 million out of poverty in the last 20 years - greater progress than at any time in world history.

There’s plenty of debate about exactly how reliable those figures are, but regardless, since most of those 400 million no-longer-quite-as-poor people live in China it is hardly an advertisement for the wonders of free market capitalism. Also, to say that it is greater progress than at any time in world history is meaningless, since we don’t have comparable figures for before 1980.

My next post explains that the figures Nelson and Norberg cite show that the numbers of people in poverty outside China (i.e. in areas that have generally ‘embraced globalisation’ more enthusiastically than China has) have actually risen since 1981. The number of people in poverty in Africa has almost doubled since 1981, and has also increased in Latin America and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In percentage terms, the proportion in poverty has increased in Africa and EECA and has dipped very slightly in Latin America.

Complaints that trade is exploitative have become the political equivalent of wearing flares and a tank-top: the world has moved on with such speed that many anti-globalisation arguments have become demonstrably untrue.

Instead, the intellectual leaders of this movement are joining the new radicals in focusing on protectionism: specifically the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy, which subsidises farmers to ensure developing countries cannot compete.

The result? “Increasing shopping prices, enormous costs for taxpayers and developing countries in kept poverty,” says Norberg, who calls it the “white man’s shame”.

The Guardian newspaper, regarded as the journal of the anti-globalisation movement, agrees - and has also started a website against agricultural subsidies. The loudest voice belongs to charities such as Oxfam and the Jubilee Network, which have changed their tune in the last four years.

Rather than rail against corporate profit, they are more likely to join the attack on trade barriers.

This is perhaps the most moronic comment of all. Corporate profits, after all, are likely to be higher behind trade barriers. And there is no contradiction between attacking unfair trade barriers and subsidies in the rich world and exploitation in the sweatshops of the poor world.

Although they would be loathe to admit it, they are now fighting from a pro- globalisation perspective.

They are fighting, as they have always fought, for a better globalisation.

When such organisations are calling for free trade, this saps a substantial amount of credibility from the arguments of the anti-globalisation campaigners.

They are not calling for free trade, they are calling for freer trade into the markets of the rich world. There is a difference. The idea that Jubilee are calling for ‘free trade’ without qualifications will come as news to them or anyone who has read their recent highly-publicised book, The Real World Economic Outlook.

All in all, Fraser Nelson has written a very dumb article. I would write a letter saying so but I don’t think they’d print all this.